The Philippines and China have expanded a previous maritime communication mechanism covering the West Philippine Sea, as tensions rise in waters that are within Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but that Beijing claims at its own.

In a Wednesday, July 17 statement, the Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the two countries signed an “Arrangement on Improving Philippines-China Maritime Communication Mechanisms.” The existence of the deal was first reported by the Associated Press.

The agreement “provides several channels for communication” between the two countries on “maritime issues,” including:

*Representatives designated by their leaders (President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. for the Philippines, President Xi Jinping for China)

*Officials of the foreign ministries of the two countries, including at the levels of the foreign minister (or foreign secretary) or vice foreign minister (or foreign undersecretary), or through designated representatives

*Through the coast guards of the Philippines and China, “which will be set up once the corresponding MOU between the Coast Guards is concluded”

Hold on – another agreement?

If you think that you’ve seen this film before, you’re right – you’ve definitely seen a version of it.

Back in January 2023, during Marcos’ first (and only, thus far) state visit to Beijing, the two countries signed an agreement that established a communication mechanism between the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA).

The new agreement, signed after Manila hosted a Bilateral Consultation Mechanism meeting on the South China Sea in early July 2024, now includes a hotline for representatives of Marcos and Xi.

“The DFA is in discussions with the Chinese side on the guidelines that will govern the implementation of this Arrangement,” said DFA spokesperson Teresita Daza.

Why a new agreement? Neither Daza nor the DFA gave an explicit explanation.

But here’s what you should understand: first, it took a while for the first hotline to be set up – because of delays on the Chinese side, Marcos himself told reporters back in May 2023. By then, a collision almost took place during a maritime patrol off the waters of Ayungin Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal.

When it was up and running, the “hotline” turned out to be anything but hot – China did not pick up the phone as the CCG used water cannons against the PCG in the West Philippine Sea back in August 2023, or would respond only hours later, after literal damage had already been done.

In January 2024, following a BCM meeting hosted in Shanghai, the two countries agreed to “improve” the maritime hotline and agreed that it would include both the foreign ministries and coast guards of the two countries.

Near collisions have become the least of the Philippines’ concerns in the West Philippine Sea.

Grave incidents

Aside from wielding water cannons with water pressures that could destroy the walls of wooden ships, the CCG has gone as far as towing, boarding, and destroying Philippine Navy dinghies during a resupply mission in June 2017. The last BCM took place in the shadow of that incident.

China insists on its sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, including in areas that are part of the Philippines’ EEZ. It’s led to tense, sometimes violent confrontations between maritime forces of the two countries in flashpoints like Ayungin Shoal or Scarborough Shoal. Filipino fishermen have also reported cases of harassment from the much larger vessels of the CCG or Chinese Maritime Militia.

Beijing has refused to recognize a 2016 arbitral ruling that deemed its sweeping claim over the South China Sea invalid.

Would this maritime communication mechanism (president’s version) finally work? And would the two coast guards – one behind water cannons and “piracy” in the West Philippine Sea, and the other subject to danger because of the former’s actions – be able to iron out an agreement and make it work?

Maybe third – or second – time’s the charm? It’s becoming harder to keep track.