MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of Typhoon Carina (Gaemi) strengthening into a super typhoon before it makes landfall in Taiwan, which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Carina further intensified on Wednesday morning, July 24, with its maximum sustained winds increasing from 155 kilometers per hour to 165 km/h.

Based on the classification of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), a super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.

Carina’s gustiness also increased from 190 km/h to 205 km/h.

As of 10 am on Wednesday, the typhoon was located 345 kilometers north northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.

It slowed down, moving north northwest toward Taiwan at 15 km/h from the previous 25 km/h.

At its current speed, Carina could make landfall in the northern part of Taiwan on Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, July 25. It will cross Taiwan then leave PAR also by Thursday morning.

Carina did not make landfall in the Philippines, but it has been affecting parts of Northern Luzon and enhancing the southwest monsoon or habagat.

Batanes and Babuyan Islands are still seeing moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters) from the typhoon on Wednesday.

Tropical cyclone wind signals remain raised for these areas as of 11 am:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

Batanes

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

Babuyan Islands

northern part of mainland Cagayan (Claveria, Santa Praxedes, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Santa Ana, Gonzaga)

northern part of Ilocos Norte (Burgos, Bangui, Pagudpud, Dumalneg, Adams)

Meanwhile, the enhanced southwest monsoon continues to trigger intense rain in parts of Luzon, including in Metro Manila, where classes, work in most government offices, work in all courts, and stock trading have been suspended amid serious flooding on Wednesday.

Below is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast for the enhanced southwest monsoon, issued at 11 am.

Wednesday, July 24

Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Rizal, Occidental Mindoro

Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, rest of Calabarzon

Thursday, July 25

Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Benguet, Abra

Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Cavite, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, rest of Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro

Friday, July 26

Strong to gale-force gusts from the enhanced southwest monsoon will also be felt in these regions and provinces:

Wednesday, July 24

Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, eastern part of Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Davao Region

Thursday, July 25

Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, eastern part of Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar

Friday, July 26

Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, eastern part of Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas

PAGASA also issued another gale warning at 11 am on Wednesday for the coastal waters of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern part of Ilocos Norte, and northern part of Cagayan. Travel is risky for small boats due to rough to very rough seas (waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high).

Aside from coastal waters under the gale warning, the seaboards listed below are affected by Carina and the enhanced southwest monsoon on Wednesday, too. It is also not advisable for small boats to venture out to sea.

seaboards of Northern Luzon outside gale warning areas and western seaboard of Central Luzon – rough seas (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high)

western seaboard of Southern Luzon – moderate to rough seas (waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high)

eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon – moderate to rough seas (waves 1.5 to 3 meters high)

southern seaboard of Southern Luzon – moderate seas (waves 1.5 to 2.5 meters high)

western and eastern seaboards of the Visayas as well as eastern seaboard of Mindanao – moderate seas (waves 1.5 to 2 meters high)

Once Carina leaves PAR, it will “cross the Taiwan Strait and make its final landfall over southeastern China” on Thursday afternoon or evening, PAGASA said.

“Its landfall over northern Taiwan will trigger a weakening trend for the rest of the forecast period,” the weather bureau added.

Carina is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2024 and the second for July. PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones during the month.

Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Benguet