Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, June 13) — A health official said on Monday there is no basis yet for Metro Manila to be placed under the stricter Alert Level 2 despite the majority of cities recording increases in COVID-19 cases.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that although 14 out of the 17 cities and municipality in the National Capital Region saw more COVID-19 cases last week, it has not yet translated to more severe cases, significant rise, or more hospital admissions.

"We are not considering at this point. Because as we all know, we have metrics that we use for alert level system. The metrics we use not only includes numbers, but also hospital admissions and other factors," she told CNN Philippines.

However, Vergeire did not discount the possibility that Metro Manila could move from the current Alert Level 1 to Alert Level 2 if cases and healthcare utilization show significant increases.

"Ang posibilidad naandyan kung magtutuloy-tuloy ang pagtaas ng kaso," the DOH official said.

[Translation: The possibility is there if cases continue to rise.]

"For NCR to be escalated to Alert Level 2, it needs to be classified under moderate risk classification in lieu of the current low risk total bed utilization," the DOH later said.

To move into the moderate risk classification, DOH said an area should have positive two-week growth rate (TWGR) and average daily attack rate (ADAR) of at least six cases per day per 100,000 population.

"As of June 10, 2022 while NCR shows positive TWGR, its ADAR is still below six at less than 1 case per 100,000 population," explained DOH.

ADAR refers to the average number of new cases per day per 100,000 people, while TWGR measures increases in virus transmission based on two-week growth rates.

OCTA Research fellow Guido David said the healthcare utilization rate in Metro Manila slightly increased from 21% from the previous week to 23%, but the small increase is unsurprising since cases are expected to rise first before hospitals start to see more COVID-19 patients.

OCTA is projecting that new cases in Metro Manila could rise to 300 to 400 per day by end of June if the current trend continues.