Most people assume that when employment falls, unemployment rises. This logic seems reasonable, but it is not. There was an example recently. In the first two months of this year, the employed population in Taiwan dropped by 55,000 compared with the same period of the previous year. However, the unemployed population not only did not increase, but also decreased by 10,000. The lowest in the same period in 21 years.

It sounds absurd that the unemployment rate has fallen sharply and the unemployment rate has reached a new low, but it is true. Why is this so? The reason for this is a major change in the population. In the past two years, Taiwans population has grown negatively, resulting in a decrease in the labor force. In the past, there were fewer porridges and more monks in the workplace. Although there are no more porridges today, there are a lot fewer monks, so the probability of becoming unemployed has also decreased. This is why today With fewer jobs, the unemployment rate is still at a 21-year low.

Based on the data of the past 20 years, from 1991 to 100 years, due to the steady growth of my countrys population, the private population over the age of 15 increased by 200,000 people every year. After deducting schooling and housework, the annual increase of labor force was as high as 140,000 people. During this period , the old monks are already insufficient to distribute porridge, and new monks flock to the road every year. There are fewer porridges and more monks.

However, in the past five years (from 106 to 110), with the negative growth of the population, the annual increase of the private population over the age of 15 has not been less than 60,000. Whats more, the private population in the first two months of this year has not increased compared with the same period last year. 120,000 people were greatly reduced, and the predicament of having more porridge and less porridge was greatly relieved. With so many fewer monks, there were naturally fewer people who could not get porridge.

From the perspective of the overall economy, the unemployment rate depends on industrial development and the economic cycle, but in the long run it also depends on the structure of the population. Demographic changes have a profound impact on the labor market. In the past 20 years, the labor market in Taiwan can be divided into three periods. For example, in the first period (91-100 years), there were many monks, many competitors, and the unemployment rate was relatively high, about 4.5%; in the second period (101-109 years), there were slightly more monks and competitors. The unemployment rate also slowed down, about 4.1%; the third period (110-111) saw a decrease in the number of monks. In this case, despite the decrease in the number of employed people, the unemployment rate continued to decrease. The first two years of this year The month has fallen to 3.6%.

　Since Taiwans population peaked at 23.6 million at the beginning of 2019, it has decreased by nearly 300,000 in the past two years. The total population has declined, and the population of people over 15 will naturally decline. In the past year, the population of people over 15 has dropped by 120,000. This population The changes are pulling all labor market statistics, and how you interpret them must be careful.

In recent years, the number of births has become less and less, and the private population and labor force will not only decline year by year in the future, but will also decline faster and faster, which means that the factor of negative population growth will continue to affect the labor market in the next 20 to 30 years. The unemployment rate we have seen is fundamentally different from the unemployment rate in the past, and cannot be compared.

This is why the unemployment rate performed so well at the beginning of the year, but the General Accounting Office only set the tone for "stable" and did not make a special note. As mentioned earlier, it is because the negative population growth has changed the labor market. essence. Having said that, the unemployment rate has hit a new low in more than 20 years. It is okay for the General Accounting Office to blow a calf. Anyway, most people do not understand the mystery, but the General Accounting Office did not do this, which is a great influence on the credibility of government statistics. Help is worth affirming.

Negative population growth is undergoing a peaceful revolution in Taiwan. Although its impact is slow and huge, it affects everywhere and has irreversible destructive power, but few people understand it.