MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Karding slightly accelerated before dawn on Friday, September 23, though it was still moving at a relatively slow 10 kilometers per hour (km/h).

Karding was last spotted 1,235 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, still heading west, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin issued at 5 am on Friday.

The tropical storm is expected to keep moving west while gradually speeding up toward the east coast of Northern Luzon, where it is likely to make landfall on Sunday, September 25.

“After crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon throughout Sunday, the tropical cyclone will continue tracking over the West Philippine Sea,” added PAGASA.

Karding maintained its strength in the early hours of Friday, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

But the weather bureau said Karding may gradually intensify before making landfall in Northern Luzon. It could hit land “as a high-end tropical storm or a low-end severe tropical storm.”

Karding may also slightly weaken as it crosses Northern Luzon’s rugged terrain, but PAGASA said it will probably still be a tropical storm by the time it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.

Rain from Karding could start on Sunday. This may trigger isolated to scattered floods and landslides.

Sunday midnight to morning, September 25

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

Batanes

Cagayan

Isabela

Rest of Sunday until early Monday morning, September 26

Moderate to heavy rain

Cordillera Administrative Region

Cagayan

Isabela

Ilocos Norte

Ilocos Sur

La Union

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

rest of Cagayan Valley

rest of Ilocos Region

northern part of Aurora

PAGASA also said the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat, “partly influenced by Karding,” may bring occasional rain to most of Southern Luzon and the Visayas beginning Sunday.

In terms of winds, tropical cyclone wind signals could be raised as early as Friday night for the eastern parts of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon, so these areas can prepare in advance.

Based on PAGASA’s latest forecast, Signal No. 2 is the “most likely” highest wind signal that would be raised. But the weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of raising Signal No. 3, in case Karding becomes a severe tropical storm.

As for coastal conditions, the northeasterlies may cause moderate to rough seas in the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon by Saturday, September 24. Waves will be 1.2 to 3.5 meters high.

Then on Sunday, moderate to rough seas are seen to continue for the seaboards of Northern Luzon (waves 1.2 to 4 meters high) and could begin in the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high) due to Karding. This may be risky for small vessels.

Karding is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2022.

It is also the third tropical cyclone for September, after Typhoon Inday (Muifa) and Super Typhoon Josie (Nanmadol). Inday and Josie did not make landfall in the country.

PAGASA expects 7 to 11 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from September 2022 to February 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

September 2022 – 2 or 3

October 2022 – 2 to 4

November 2022 – 2 or 3

December 2022 – 1 or 2

January 2023 – 0 or 1

February 2023 – 0 or 1